The effect of social protection on climate-induced migration in low-income countries: The case of Nigeria
Climate change poses one of the most serious threats to the wellbeing of populations worldwide. In the next 10 years it may lead to the migration of up to 200 million individuals and push up to 130 million people into poverty (The World Bank).
A substantial body of research explores the effects of climate change on economic outcomes (Aragon et al., 2021). However, less attention has been given to the intersection of climate change, migration, and social protection. Social protection programmes -- ranging from cash transfers and social insurance to labour market interventions and public works schemes (Silchenko et al., 2023) -- are designed to mitigate poverty and vulnerability. However, they often remain insufficient in countries where the climate change risks are most pressing.
This project aims to gain a better understanding of how social protection influences migration decisions driven by extreme weather shocks. A variable depicting extreme weather shocks will be constructed using satellite data at a granular level and linked with a rich Nigerian household panel survey with detailed individual characteristics and geolocation. Geospatial data is essential for tracking individuals over time to identify their migration decisions, and linking it to weather shocks.
The proposed research will also explore how the propensity to migrate differs depending on individual's socio-economic characteristics or position in the family unit, helping design targeted social protection measures that minimise unintended migration-related consequences. By contributing to the limited pool of quantitative research on this issue, the study will enhance our understanding of how social protection can serve as a buffer against climate-induced migration.