Tanzania aims to achieve broad-based and inclusive economic growth, yet recent infrastructure investments have been spatially concentrated along urban and coastal corridors. Large projects such as the Standard Gauge Railway and port modernisation are intended to stimulate national development, but their benefits may accrue mainly to already well-connected regions. In 2020, only 38% of the population had access to electricity nationwide, compared with 73% in urban areas, implying substantially lower access in rural districts (World Bank, 2022). Urban areas are also more economically developed and continue to receive a larger share of new infrastructure investment, raising concerns that public spending may reinforce existing regional inequalities rather than reduce them.
This research examines whether recent infrastructure investments in Tanzania have promoted inclusive development or mainly strengthened growth in advantaged regions. Focusing on transport infrastructure and complemented by energy and digital connectivity, the study analyses their effects on regional economic growth and poverty reduction. Using high-resolution geographic data and spatial econometric methods, it estimates both direct impacts in treated districts and indirect spillover effects in neighbouring areas. Variation in the timing and location of projects is exploited to distinguish infrastructure effects from pre-existing regional trends.
The project will identify which types of infrastructure generate the largest benefits for lagging regions and how local conditions such as population density, terrain, and human capital shape these outcomes. The findings will inform infrastructure planning aimed at reducing spatial inequality in Tanzania and provide transferable lessons for other low-income countries pursuing growth through large-scale public investment.